Innovation in the Energy Transition
Energy as Technology and the Growing Role of AI in the Energy Sector
Hey there,
Jeroen was born two years after me. He's my little brother.
But if you see us standing next to each other, you'll notice that the diminutive is inappropriate.
His body type isn't as lean as mine. He's broadly built and maintains his muscles with five CrossFit workouts per week.
Jeroen's career path hasn't been linear. He started with vocational hospitality training, followed by a job at the environmental service, an unfinished digital investigation program, working as a gas station attendant, and a few years in scaffolding.
Three years ago, at thirty-five, he made a new move. Not easy at that age, but he started a part-time electrical engineering program to become a service technician at the Dutch grid operator Enexis.
His work in the energy sector now overlaps with my job as a futurist and innovation expert. And that's the theme of this newsletter: innovation in the energy transition.
Enjoy reading,
Peter
P.S. Professor Jan Rotmans has a term for major societal shifts: transitions. The energy transition is the most well-known of the transitions we're currently experiencing.
Watch this Dutch video if you want to know more about transitions:
Innovation in the Energy Sector
The energy sector is changing rapidly. The rise of sustainably generated energy is progressing quickly, but also faces limitations. In recent months, I've delved into the energy transition. Within my expertise of strategic foresight, technology, and innovation, a tremendous amount is happening in the energy sector.
These are the insights I want to share with you:
Energy as technology.
AI as an accelerator.
1. Energy as Technology
For the past three millennia, we've primarily viewed energy as a raw material extracted from the earth in the form of oil, gas, and coal.
The characteristics of a raw material are that they run out, are unevenly distributed across the world, and can be greatly influenced by the actions of major players, both in the market and politically.
In the energy transition, the focus is usually on reducing emissions. The minimal emissions from renewable energy from sun, wind, tides, or geothermal energy is indeed an important aspect for switching to new forms of energy production.
But even more important is that energy is becoming less of a raw material and more of a technology. This is the core idea that author Azeem Azhar recently outlined in the Financial Times.
Paradigm Shifts in Energy
The transition encompasses several underlying elements. These are paradigm shifts that have (or will have) a major impact:
From extraction to generation.
From limited to virtually infinite.
From geographically limited oil and gas fields to globally (but variably) available.
From volatile prices to increasingly lower costs.
The underlying components of renewable energy, such as solar cells, wind turbines, and batteries, are all driven by technological innovation.
Cheaper, Better, and More Efficient
The great advantage of technological innovation is that manufacturers can make their components increasingly cheaper, better, and more efficient. This comes from learning effects, experience, and mass production.
Between 1980 and 2017, solar energy systems became 90% cheaper, the costs for wind turbines decreased by about 35% in the last ten years, and the cost of lithium batteries fell by about 70% from 2010 to 2022.
This mechanism doesn't work with raw materials like oil and gas. On the contrary: the more we use them, the scarcer and more expensive they become.
2. AI as an Accelerator
A technological development that further accelerates this evolution toward energy as technology is Artificial Intelligence (AI). In what ways is AI an accelerator of innovations and transitions in the energy sector?
In recent months, I've explored fascinating applications presented during the AI in the Energy Transition masterclass by the New Energy Business School and the Dutch AI Congress.
Supertool
On the role of AI in the energy transition, Maarten Otto, CEO of grid operator Alliander, was emphatic at the Dutch AI Congress 2025:
"AI is a supertool when it comes to innovation in the energy transition, but not a silver bullet."
At Alliander itself, they use AI to make predictions: how much energy will be available through sun, wind, and traditional power plants, and what is the expected demand based on weather forecasts and historical data?
Maarten Otto:
"This leads to insights about where there is space on the energy grid and where bottlenecks are threatening."
5 Concrete Cases
Grid operators such as Alliander, Enexis, and TenneT are already using AI extensively to make predictions for the electricity grid.
During my exploration, I came across these inspiring examples where AI is helping advance the energy sector:
Alejandro Martín Gil from TNO explained during the masterclass how they use AI to create simulations of heat networks and use those insights to optimize the operation of those networks.
His colleague Jonah Poort works with an AI model that determines the ideal placement of sensors in gas networks.
Tarek Alskaif from Wageningen University shared the results of an experiment with Amsterdam homeowners: they could trade solar energy among themselves via smart automated contracts.
Tapestry emerged from the Google X program. Their AI tool helps the Chilean government predict grid congestion and better plan locations for green energy projects. This is partly why the country can move away from coal 10 years earlier than expected.
Shell uses AI to analyze sensor data from various installations and perform maintenance before a defect occurs.
Do you know other inspiring examples of AI innovations in the energy sector? Share them by responding to this newsletter!
Challenges
It seems paradoxical: how can energy-consuming AI help with the energy transition? Especially when it comes to maintaining refinery installations at Shell or improving gas networks by TNO.
As long as we still generate 80% of our energy globally with fossil fuels, any efficiency gain through AI is a step in the right direction.
However, we face significant challenges in implementing AI in the energy sector. Andrej Pustisek, affiliated with HTF Stuttgart, explained during his lecture that the energy sector innovates relatively slowly and struggles with outdated software, systems, and infrastructure.
The 4Bs of AI in the Energy Transition
What is needed to accelerate AI and the energy transition? Gijs Tuinman, State Secretary of Defense, came up with a nice triad at the Dutch AI Congress:
"We need bucks, brains, and balls."
His call was about AI in defense, but I think it's just as applicable to the energy sector.
If I may add a fourth 'B' myself, it would be 'boots'. Because the energy transition is also about professionals like my brother Jeroen, who help improve and expand the energy system in the Netherlands.
Deep Dive
Articles, books, podcasts, videos, documentaries, and more on this theme.
1. DO / On November 5 2025, New Energy Business School will again organize a masterclass on AI in the Energy Transition at the Energy Transition Campus, Amsterdam.
2. WATCH / The film Mad Max: Fury Road is set in a post-apocalyptic world where energy is scarce (8.1 on IMDb).
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