Times of Technological Turbulence
The (Unbridgeable) Gap Between Policy and Technology
Hey there,
Technology and politics, not the easiest combination.
Consider Michael Faraday. He was one of the greatest scientists in the field of electricity and magnetism.1 Around 1850, he received a visit in his laboratory from William Gladstone, then a prominent politician and later Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
The story goes that Gladstone glanced around the cluttered lab filled with devices, copper wire coils, and metal foil coverings, saying, “It certainly looks interesting. But what is it exactly? And what can you do with it?”
The scientist Faraday's response was brilliant:
Well, I'm sure you’ll find a way to tax it.
This conversation from 1850 illustrates a timeless challenge: the gap between technology and policy. Even now, almost 175 years later, we see similar dynamics between technology developers and policymakers.
In this newsletter, I will share how governments can deal with technological turbulence.
Happy reading,
Peter
P.S. Or if you prefer to watch, I made a video on this topic. It starts with a great animation of the anecdote about Faraday and Gladstone.2
For English subtitles: select the icon of a sprocket (settings), and then subtitles.
Technological Turbulence
Everyone is dealing with technological changes. Not just businesses, education, or healthcare, but also governments such as municipalities, provinces, and water authorities. How can they navigate these developments wisely?
In this newsletter, I share two crucial insights on how the government can manage technological turbulence. On one hand, practical tips for future-oriented government organizations and, on the other, a look at the geopolitical power dynamics in the digital world, including the battle for superintelligence.
Tips for Future-Oriented Governments
Over the past years, I have given countless lectures on the future, technology, and innovation in government. The question that clients usually ask me is:
How should we deal with all these changes?
It seems like a simple question, but there is no straightforward answer. Below, I share the most effective tips from practice:
Knowledge and Awareness: This is a basic requirement: provide education on new developments, such as AI and technology, as well as related themes like ethics, resilience, and craftsmanship.
Thinking in Scenarios: This is good training to be prepared for the unexpected. I was involved in a project for the municipality of the Netherlands. The setup: creating stories with scenario planning, sharing them with administrators, politicians, and citizens. The result is that the scenarios guide future decisions.
Outside the Silos: The challenges we face today are too great for an individual civil servant, team, or department. To quote Kim Putters, a prominent Dutch academic and public figure:
The best way to deal with transitions is to think integrally and outside the box, breaking down barriers.
Although these tips are valuable, more is needed for real change. From my experience, successful organizations weave these tips into a broader transformation process.
Think of smart personnel policies, a culture that allows experimentation, leaders who have a vision and provide support, and where employees have a strong connection to society.
Power in the Digital World
On a somewhat higher level of abstraction: what do the current technological developments mean for the balance of power in the world?
According to Dr. Haroon Sheikh, special professor at VU University Amsterdam, a flat world map is no longer sufficient. According to him, national borders are outdated because:
Whoever controls the resources, the chips, and the networks holds the power in the world.
Therefore, he introduces a new kind of map. Cleverly, Sheikh does not call it a map, but a stack.
In the world of technology, people often think in layers, similar to a stack in English. This principle is reflected in smartphones, which consist of various layers that work seamlessly together. The lowest layer contains physical components like chips, and above it lies a layer with network technology that ensures the connection to the internet.
These are the stacked layers in the digital world:
1st layer: Resources: water, energy, and rare earth metals. Largest player: China.
2nd layer: Chips: think of companies like TMSC, Intel, Nvidia, and ASML.
3rd layer: Network, such as cables, towers, and antennas. Important company: Huawei (China).
4th layer: Cloud. Amazon Web Services and Microsoft are the key players here.
5th layer: Artificial Intelligence. Interestingly, this features both a competition between (big tech) companies and between the United States and China.
6th layer: The apps we use as consumers, such as Instagram (from Facebook), TikTok (Chinese ByteDance), or Spotify (one of the few globally successful apps from Europe).
7th layer: Internet of Things, the connection between the digital and the physical world. Think of smart doorbells, thermostats, or vacuum cleaners.
Besides providing insight, what can you do with this model? Sheikh says:
You must create policy for all layers of the stack and tailor your policy to what you do best for each layer.
A concrete example regarding resources: can we invest more in Europe in recycling rare metals from discarded smartphones? What trade agreements and under what conditions do we want to make trade agreements with China and other countries where these metals are mined?
The Battle for AGI
At all layers of Sheikh’s stack, there is currently enough happening to keep politicians and policymakers awake at night. Take the 5th layer of artificial intelligence.
Various countries, led by the U.S. and China, want to be the first to develop Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), or superintelligence. The thought is: whoever is first achieves economic, military, and political world dominance.
Currently, there is much buzz around the Chinese DeepSeek. An open-source model that performs almost as well as advanced models from OpenAI and Meta with much less energy, investment, and computing hours.
The United States is not idle. For instance, OpenAI, along with several investors and the government, is initiating Project Stargate for AI infrastructure. This project has a total investment of over $500 billion.
Earlier, it was even referred to as a kind of Manhattan Project for the development of AGI. The term Manhattan Project refers to the development of the atomic bomb during World War II. That name is fitting due to the massive investments, geopolitical importance, and the ethical questions surrounding technology that can fundamentally change the world.
Deep Dive on AI & Work
Articles, books, podcasts, videos, documentaries, and more on this theme.
1. READ / To what extent do we want our lives to be governed and controlled by powerful digital systems? That is the central question of Jamie Susskind's book Future Politics.
Eloquently written essays infused with British subtle humor. A must-read for politicians, administrators, and civil servants.
2. LISTEN / Political scientist Ian Bremmer was a guest on Adam Grant's podcast in 2024. It was a good episode in which Bremmer puts the current geopolitical shifts into perspective.
3. WATCH / The Manhattan Project made me think of Oppenheimer (8.3 on IMDb). It’s a powerful film about the brilliant and sometimes unbearable Robert Oppenheimer (played by the outstanding Cillian Murphy), who was the scientific director of this project during World War II.
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You might recognize his last name from Faraday's cage. This is a space that excludes electromagnetic radiation.
All credit goes to my video editor László for this!